If you’ve been losing sleep over Social Security lately, you’re in good company. In fact, out of my last 30 client meetings, nearly every single one has brought up the same fear:
"What if Social Security just... disappears?"
I get it. The headlines are scary, the politics are messy, and frankly, the government hasn’t exactly inspired confidence lately. But as your financial planner, I want to share some perspective that might help you sleep a little better—and make smarter decisions about your retirement.
What’s Really Happening Out There
First, let’s acknowledge that your fears aren’t coming from nowhere. A new study called "Loss of Trust in Social Security Jeopardizes Americans' Retirement Plans" shows that Social Security claims jumped 13% between December 2023 and April 2025. That’s nearly 600,000 people who decided they better grab their benefits now before they vanish.
The Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies found that 72% of workers are worried Social Security won’t be there when they retire. Among the age 50-somethings, that number jumps to 77%. Here’s the kicker: 28% of Gen Xers expect Social Security to be their primary retirement income, yet three-quarters of them think it won’t exist. Talk about a contradiction that’s keeping people up at night!
The Perfect Storm That’s Fueling the Concern
So, what’s driving all this unease? It’s not just one thing—it’s a perfect storm of unfortunate events.
Remember the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)? Their mission to root out fraud and waste in government was actually meant to strengthen Social Security by eliminating billions in improper payments. But instead of seeing this as helpful, many people interpreted it as the government preparing to dismantle the whole system. The fear became: “If they’re looking this closely, they must be planning to shut it down.”
Then there’s the practical nightmare many of you have experienced firsthand. Try calling Social Security lately? Good luck. The agency lost about 7,000 employees (12% of its workforce), and many of the most experienced people took early retirement packages. What’s left is an overwhelmed, understaffed agency trying to process a flood of applications from concerned Americans. The worse the service gets, the more people think, “This thing is falling apart.”
Here’s What I Tell Every Client: The Math Still Works
Despite all this chaos, I still believe most of you should delay claiming Social Security as long as possible (aside from some of the more rare cases). I know that seemingly contradicts everything I just pointed out—but let me explain.
Let’s say you’re 62 with a Primary Insurance Amount of $3,800 (that’s roughly what someone earning $100,000+ annually can expect). If you claim now because you’re worried Social Security won’t be there when you need it, you’ll get $2,660 per month. But if you wait until 70, you’ll get $4,712 per month—plus eight years of cost-of-living adjustments based on inflation.
Now, let’s assume the worst-case scenario everyone’s worried about happens: Congress does absolutely nothing, and benefits get cut by 20% in 2033 or 2034. Even then, the person who waited until 70 will still receive about 77% more than the more fearful claimant who filed early at 62. Math notes: the early claimant would receive an equivalent of $2,128 per month, versus the $3,770 age-70 claimant—a whopping $1,642 monthly difference!
Think about it this way—even if your fears come true, you’re still way better off waiting.
The Elephant in the Room: Will Social Security Really Disappear?
Let’s be honest. Could Congress technically eliminate Social Security? Yes. But realistically? That’s highly unlikely.
We’re talking about a program that sends monthly checks to 67 million Americans—that’s roughly one in five people in the country. These aren’t just retirees; this includes disabled workers, surviving spouses, and children who lost a parent. The political support behind Social Security is enormous and turns out in large numbers at the polls.
Here’s what’s more likely to happen: Congress will do what it always does—wait until the last possible moment, then patch things together. They might raise the payroll tax cap (currently at $160,200), increase the payroll tax rate slightly, raise the retirement age gradually, or transfer money from general revenues. None of these solutions are politically popular—but they’re all far more acceptable than facing millions of voters who just lost their Social Security checks.
What This Means for Your Planning
So where does this leave you? I’ve started having different conversations with clients. Instead of assuming Social Security will be there at current benefit levels, I ask: “How do you want to handle this uncertainty?”
Some clients tell me, “Just plan like Social Security won’t exist at all.” Okay, we can do that—but understand what it means. You’ll probably need to work a few more years, save more aggressively, or be more flexible about your retirement lifestyle. That’s not necessarily a bad thing—it just means we need to adjust our strategy.
Others say, “I’ll count on Social Security, but maybe at 80% of promised benefits.” That’s probably the most realistic approach. We can build that assumption into your financial plan and still come out ahead by delaying benefits.
Things You Can Actually Control
While we can’t control what Congress might do, there’s a lot you can do right now:
Your career trajectory. If you’re worried about Social Security, this might be the time to maximize your final earning years. That higher salary helps both your Social Security calculation and your 401(k) contributions.
Your savings rate. I know it’s hard to save more when inflation is eating into everything—but if Social Security uncertainty is keeping you up at night, aggressive saving is your best insurance policy.
Your investment approach. If you’re planning to work longer or save more, you might be able to take on a bit more investment risk to potentially boost your returns. And yes, we have great strategies that accomplish this goal.
Your retirement timeline. Maybe retirement at 62 isn’t realistic anymore. But working until 65 or 67 could make all the difference in your financial security.
My Professional Take
After reading so much on this topic from qualified sources, here’s what I’ve concluded: the fear of Social Security disappearing is probably overblown—but the fear of benefits being reduced is reasonable. The system faces real financial challenges that will require real solutions.
But here’s the thing—even if benefits get cut by 20%, delaying your claim still provides dramatically higher lifetime income. And if Congress actually fixes the system properly (which I think is more likely than elimination), those who claim early may regret it in the long run.
What To Do?
Don’t waste your energy trying to predict what Congress will or won’t do—no one really knows, not even them. Instead, build a retirement plan that works under multiple scenarios. We’ll stress-test it assuming no Social Security, reduced Social Security, and full Social Security benefits.
Then you can make an informed decision about when to claim based on your specific situation—not in reaction to alarming headlines.
Your retirement future is too important to leave to fear-driven decisions. Let’s base your strategy on math, planning, and preparation for multiple possibilities. That’s how we turn uncertainty into confidence.
Want to run the numbers for your specific situation?
Contact Aspire Planning Associates at (925) 938-2023 and schedule a time to model different Social Security scenarios to see how they impact your retirement timeline. Because the one thing I know for sure is that having a plan—even an imperfect one—beats worrying about things you can’t control.
